Gambiaj.com – (ABUJA) – Meteorologists at the 2024 Forum for Seasonal Forecasts of the Agro-hydro-climatic Characteristics of the Rainy Season for the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of West Africa from Chad (PRESASS 2024) have issued predictions for the upcoming rainy season in the Sahelian strip. The forum, held in Abuja, Nigeria, from April 22 to 26, 2024, anticipates a generally wet season across the region.
The forecast suggests a late to normal start for the rainy season in the Central Sahel, while the West and East Sahel are expected to see an early to average start. End dates are predicted to be late to average, with short dry sequences at the beginning of the season in the Western Sahel and medium to long sequences in the Eastern Sahel. Flows in the main river basins of the Sahel are expected to be above average.
Over the period May-June-July 2024, average to above-average rainfall totals are expected in most of the Sahelian belt, extending from the Cabo Verde Islands to Chad, as well as in the coastal areas of Ghana, Togo, Benin, and South West Nigeria. However, accumulations are forecast to be lower than average in Sierra Leone, Liberia, the extreme southeast of Nigeria, and the coastal part of Cameroon. Elsewhere, rainfall is expected to be close to the climatological normal.
In the agricultural belts of Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, and the northern parts of Guinea, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and Cameroon, accumulated rainfall is predicted to be above average to equivalent over the periods June-July-August and July-August-September 2024.
The coastal parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin, and South-West Nigeria are expected to receive average to above-average rainfall during June-July-August, while deficits are forecast over the season in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and the extreme southeast of Nigeria. Elsewhere, rainfall is expected to be close to the climatological average.
The forecasts also predict normal to early start dates for the season along the eastern Atlantic coast, covering Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, northern Sierra Leone, and the southern parts of Mauritania and Mali.
Start dates are expected to be late to average in the Central Sahel, including the Southeast of Mali, Burkina Faso, the western half of the agricultural and pastoral strip of Niger, North-East of Ivory Coast, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin, and the northwest of Nigeria.
Medium to late start dates are forecast in the eastern part of the agricultural belt of Niger, the northeast of Nigeria, and the agricultural zone of Chad.
The forecast warns of the high risks of flooding due to the expected rainy conditions in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of West Africa and Chad, as well as the excess runoffs anticipated in the majority of river basins of the Sahel. This could lead to losses of crops, material goods, and even human lives.
To mitigate these risks, it is recommended to strengthen communication of seasonal forecasts, raise awareness among communities about the risks, and support efforts in flood monitoring, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian aid. Additionally, the occupation of flood-prone areas by homes, crops, and animals is discouraged.
