BANJUL, The Gambia – A fresh pre-election opinion poll has triggered intense political debate ahead of the December 2026 presidential election, with the Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies (CepRass) projecting the incumbent NPP-Alliance as the early frontrunner.
While the findings suggest a narrow advantage for the ruling camp, the main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) has pushed back, arguing that opinion surveys cannot replace the “sovereign choice” of voters at the ballot box.
The Numbers: Incumbent Edge and the “Undecided” Factor
The CepRass report, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), indicates that the NPP-Alliance is currently perceived as the party most likely to win the upcoming contest, with the United Democratic Party (UDP) emerging as the strongest opposition force.
Among respondents who expressed support for opposition parties, the UDP leads, followed by the APRC, PDOIS, and the UMC.
However, the poll also highlights the decisive role of a substantial bloc of undecided voters. Roughly one-quarter of respondents either declined to disclose a preference, said they were unsure, or had not yet committed to any candidate.
CepRass noted that this group could ultimately tilt the outcome, stressing that for the opposition to overcome the incumbent’s modest popularity advantage, a united coalition remains the most “credible way” to victory.
UDP Reaction: “Polls Don’t Vote, People Do”
In a statement issued by its Media and Communications Team, the UDP acknowledged the effort behind the CepRass research but urged caution in interpreting the results as a forecast of the final outcome.
The party said it would draw on the data to “sharpen messaging” and “deepen connections with voters,” while reiterating that “opinion polls do not determine election outcomes—voters do.”
To support its position, the UDP pointed to recent African electoral precedents, citing the 2020 victory of Dr. Lazarus Chakwera in Malawi and the 2021 landslide election of Hakainde Hichilema in Zambia, both of which defied pre-election polling.
The party argued that such examples demonstrate how surveys can underestimate grassroots momentum or fail to capture late shifts in voter behaviour, adding that it places greater confidence in the “power of ideas” and direct engagement with voters than in survey projections.
Governance Concerns and Electoral Integrity
Beyond voting intentions, the CepRass findings reveal deep-seated governance concerns that may shape the final vote.
Public confidence in the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) remains cautious, with only a quarter of respondents expressing high trust in the body, a sentiment that could heighten anxieties about electoral credibility.
The report also points to widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions, job creation, and the government’s perceived inability to effectively combat corruption.
These performance-related concerns contribute to what CepRass describes as a broader “challenge of legitimacy” facing the incumbent administration. In addition, there is a strong national perception that the President’s “Meet the People Tour” is a political activity financed beyond approved budgets, rather than a neutral governance exercise, further fuelling debate over the proper use of state resources.
As the December 2026 election approaches, both the CepRass data and the UDP’s response point to a volatile and highly contested campaign season. While the NPP-Alliance currently holds a statistical edge, the opposition remains adamant that the final verdict will be delivered only at the polling stations.
