Gambiaj.com – (DAKAR, Senegal) – A new report by the International Crisis Group reveals that a Sahel-based jihadist group has deliberately avoided confronting Senegal, fearing retaliation from what it considers a robust and well-organized security apparatus.
The report, published on Friday, February 20, 2026, states that Jama’at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM), the main armed group affiliated with Al‑Qaeda in the Sahel, has intentionally refrained from crossing into Senegalese territory, despite its steady expansion toward coastal West African countries.
According to the 40-page document titled JNIM and the Dilemma of Expansion Beyond the Sahel, the group’s restraint stems from fears of “provoking states with well-equipped and organized security forces, particularly Senegal.”
Senegal’s Long-Standing Vigilance
Although Senegal has not suffered large-scale jihadist attacks, the report notes that it was among the first countries in the region to confront the emerging threat.
Citing a 2013 report by the Economic Community of West African States, Crisis Group said Senegalese authorities began identifying and arresting suspected jihadists as early as 2010, even before the full-scale crisis erupted in the central Sahel.
Senegal’s intelligence services have since arrested individuals suspected of links to Sahel-based jihadist movements, including JNIM, with notable arrests reported in Dakar in April 2017.
Strategic Restraint and Safe Haven Calculations
In a surprising finding, the report suggests that some JNIM leaders may be deliberately avoiding attacks in certain coastal countries, including Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, and likely Senegal, in order to preserve them as potential safe havens.
This strategy could allow fighters and their families, particularly members of pastoralist communities fleeing military operations in Sahel alliance countries, to seek refuge there.
Expansion Near Borders Without Crossing
Crisis Group noted that JNIM has significantly expanded its presence in western and southern Mali, conducting military operations near border areas with Guinea and Senegal.
However, it emphasized that the group has so far refrained from launching armed operations across those borders.
In November 2018, JNIM co-founder Hamadoun Kouffa publicly called on Fulani populations across several countries, including Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, to join his movement.
Despite this rhetoric, the report notes that JNIM has largely limited its operations to core Sahel countries, highlighting a clear gap between its ideological messaging and operational reality.
Deadly Record Across the Sahel Calls for Stronger Regional Cooperation
The report stresses that containing the jihadist threat will require stronger regional coordination.
“Preventing jihadist expansion requires strengthening bilateral and multilateral security approaches,” Crisis Group said.
It urged coastal states to deepen their understanding of local dynamics, revive weakened cooperation with Sahelian countries, and explore possible negotiations aimed at reducing violence.
Founded in Mali in 2017, JNIM has been involved in 16,023 violent incidents resulting in 39,850 deaths between March 2017 and the end of 2025, according to data cited in the report.
These incidents occurred across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, and Togo, underscoring the group’s role as one of the deadliest jihadist organizations operating in West Africa.
