Gambiaj.com – (BANJUL, The Gambia) – For a man exiled nearly eight years ago, Yahya Jammeh continues to wield an unsettling amount of influence over Gambian politics. His latest intervention—the expulsion of Bakary Badjie from his faction of APRC, the party he founded—proves that despite his absence, his grip on Gambian political dynamics remains firm.

In a widely circulated audio message, Jammeh made it clear: Badjie, a rising political figure and potential presidential candidate in 2026, was no longer welcome. The move underscores a brutal reality—Jammeh may have been forced from power, but he was never truly removed from the political equation.

Jammeh’s exile to Equatorial Guinea in 2017 was supposed to mark the end of an era. After losing the 2016 election and clinging to power for weeks, he was forced out under regional military pressure.

Jammeh Fights for Influence and Relevance

Many expected his influence to fade with time, but nearly a decade later, he remains a disruptive force. Through sporadic audio messages, he dictates the APRC’s affairs as if he were still in State House. These messages are not just political statements; they are signals to his base, reminders that he is watching and waiting. His continued influence is possible because the system that enabled him was never fully dismantled.

Although seemingly dormant, his network remains intact, with party loyalists, business allies, and an unwavering support base that still views him as their leader.

Despite overwhelming evidence of his crimes—including torture, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings—Jammeh remains revered by many who still see him as the leader, not a former one.

The Myth of a Strongman and a Pattern of Control

Yahya Jammeh’s continued grip on APRC, and by extension Gambian politics, is fueled by several key factors. One is the myth of the strongman.

For many Gambians, particularly in rural areas, Jammeh’s rule represented order. Under him, subsidies kept rice and fuel prices low, and security forces exercised tight control over crime.

Compared to the current government’s struggles with corruption and economic instability, Jammeh’s rule—despite its brutality—is viewed with nostalgia. Ethnic and political allegiances further sustain his influence. Many of his supporters see his exile as unfair and remain mobilized by his narrative of betrayal by ECOWAS, President Barrow, and foreign actors.

This victimhood narrative fosters a sense of unity among his loyalists, many of whom benefited from his rule. They feel personally indebted to him and perceive any opposition to Jammeh as a betrayal.

The expulsion of Bakary Badjie follows a familiar pattern in Jammeh’s playbook: remove, silence, and replace.

In 2018, he mobilized his supporters for political rallies, asserting his continued presence in Gambian affairs.

In 2021, he ordered the APRC to form an alliance with President Barrow’s NPP, only to later dissolve the executive and revoke the alliance in favor of a coalition with GANU.

That, too, ended in disarray when he ultimately backed Mama Kandeh. In 2023, he removed interim APRC leader Yahya Tamba, reasserting his total control.

Now, in 2024, he has expelled Bakary K. Badjie, a potential presidential candidate, just as he was gaining traction.

This is not about party discipline—it is about fear. Any APRC member with independent ambitions is swiftly cut down. The message is clear: Jammeh rules APRC, whether in exile or not.

To exert this grip on his followers, Jammeh has adapted to modern political warfare. While he once suppressed social media during his presidency, from exile, he has mastered its use to disrupt Gambian political discourse. He no longer needs state-run television or large political rallies.

His voice circulates through Facebook groups and WhatsApp channels, spreading directives in the form of sporadic audio messages, gruff and authoritative commands, laced with nostalgia for his rule. These recordings are not just political statements; they are signals to his base, a reminder that he is watching, waiting… In an era where misinformation thrives, his supporters dismiss the findings of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) as propaganda, further entrenching his influence.

Public Sentiment, Exile Fatigue, and Generational Shift: Is His Grip Weakening?

There are cracks in Jammeh’s influence that are beginning to show. Many of his supporters are growing impatient. His repeated claims of returning to The Gambia have not materialized, and some are losing faith. His exile has created fatigue among his base, who see no clear pathway for his return. A generational shift is also underway.

Younger voters, who have no direct memory of his rule, are less interested in his brand of politics. The nostalgia that sustains his base holds no appeal for them.

Meanwhile, mounting pressure for transitional justice and international calls for his prosecution further complicate his political future. While his loyalists dismiss the TRRC’s recommendations, global accountability efforts continue to gain traction.

Jammeh’s exile is not just a Gambian issue—it is a regional security concern. ECOWAS sees his return as a destabilizing risk. Having once deployed troops to remove him, they are unlikely to permit a comeback. Senegal views him as a threat due to his alleged ties to Casamance rebels, making his return a security issue for Dakar. Equatorial Guinea, which has provided him refuge, remains silent, showing no indication that he will be allowed to leave freely.

The Gambian Political Paradox and Jammeh’s End Game

Jammeh’s continued political influence is a contradiction—exiled but powerful, accused of grave crimes but revered by thousands, absent from ballots but shaping elections. His ongoing political maneuvers suggest he is not simply clinging to the past—he is actively shaping his future.

A political comeback remains unlikely, given the regional and international pressure against him. However, he may seek to maintain control over APRC, ensuring that his influence continues through proxies.

His expulsion of Badjie is a strategic move to consolidate power within the party. Another possibility is his attempt to disrupt the 2026 elections by throwing his weight behind a candidate who aligns with his interests, creating electoral turmoil. His past willingness to manipulate, at best, and, if not, to influence election processes suggests he could attempt this again.

Jammeh is not merely an exiled former leader; he is still playing the long game. His continued influence presents a contradiction—exiled yet powerful, accused of grave crimes yet revered by thousands, absent from ballots yet shaping elections. Bakary Badjie’s expulsion is the latest proof that Jammeh still dictates APRC’s future.

But as The Gambia moves closer to 2026, the fundamental question remains: Will the country finally close the chapter on Jammeh’s rule, or is his influence destined to cast a shadow over its democracy for years to come?