Gambiaj.com – (DAKAR) – The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a cornerstone of regional integration for nearly half a century, faces an existential crisis. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have declared their intent to leave the organization, while neighboring presidents strive to salvage what remains.

In this tense climate, the new Senegalese President, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, and his Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, elected on a sovereignist platform, could play a pivotal mediation role. Le Monde questions whether they will be the “thread and needle” to mend ties or the “explosive and detonator” to shatter what remains.

President Faye has initiated local diplomacy by visiting Ivory Coast to underscore ECOWAS as “a formidable integration tool that must be preserved.” Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sonko plans a diplomatic “tour” to convince the junta-led countries to remain.

However, experts suggest the chances of success are slim. Junta leaders reject reconciliation, fearing it would bind them to returning power to civilians.

Beyond the threat of disintegration, the rising influence of pro-Russian junta elements within the Alliance of Sahel States is concerning. This influence embodies the idea of true sovereignty for certain elites, which could alter the regional balance.

Francis Laloupo of IRIS suggests that the Senegalese military had contact with coup plotters during pre-electoral unrest, hinting at potential shifts in regional dynamics.

As ECOWAS approaches its 50th anniversary in 2025, its future hinges on its members’ ability, particularly Senegal, to persuade dissenters to remain. This daunting task is crucial for preserving the integrity of one of Africa’s few successful integration ventures.