Gambiaj.com – (BANJUL, The Gambia) – A prominent Equatoguinean lawyer and governance expert, Lucas Olo Fernandes, has warned that President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo is unlikely to surrender former Gambian president Yahya Jammeh for trial, despite growing international calls for his prosecution.

The push for Jammeh’s trial has gained momentum with a plan to establish an ECOWAS-backed tribunal, but the main challenge remains how to extract him from his protected exile in Equatorial Guinea.

In a detailed analysis obtained by The Standard, Fernandes explained how Equatorial Guinea agreed to take Jammeh after his ouster in 2017 and why extraditing him now is proving difficult.

“One analysis is that Obiang would not be willing to surrender Jammeh as it would set a dangerous precedent by which an exiled former president can be used as a bargaining chip for geostrategic interests,” Fernandes noted.

Drawing a parallel with Liberia’s former president Charles Taylor, Fernandes recalled that Taylor faced an arrest warrant from the UN-backed Special Court for Sierra Leone but remained under Nigerian protection for three years. His eventual surrender, under pressure from the United States, was presented as a political victory for then-Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo.

“In the case of Jammeh, there is no request from the Gambian government for his surrender, nor is there any direct pressure from ECOWAS or the United Nations,” he added.

Fernandes further highlighted that Jammeh’s presence in Equatorial Guinea remains shrouded in secrecy. “He looks like a ghost visitor. The majority of the population does not know he is in the country, or, if they do, they are not interested. He is thought to be residing in Mongomo, a remote but luxurious area near the Gabonese border.”

Jammeh’s activities and movements remain largely unknown, and his situation has never been debated in Equatorial Guinea’s parliament or discussed in state media, which, according to Fernandes, have likely been instructed to avoid the topic.

With increasing calls for justice from The Gambia, Fernandes noted that the only legal path to extradition would be through a formal agreement, as no extradition treaty exists between the two nations. “However, it is understood that this decision could only be made by President Obiang. While Gambian government representatives have visited Malabo multiple times, these meetings have not resulted in any concrete actions regarding Jammeh. Instead, they have focused on trade agreements and diplomatic ties.”

For now, Jammeh’s fate remains uncertain, as Equatorial Guinea continues to shield the former dictator from prosecution.