Gambiaj.com – (BANJUL, The Gambia) – The Gambia’s debt stock has risen from D110.7 billion (USD 1.74 billion) in 2023 to D129.5 billion (USD 1.85 billion) in 2024, Finance Minister Hon. Seedy Keita told lawmakers on Friday as he presented the 2026 Budget Speech before the National Assembly.
Hon. Keita said the increase is largely the result of exchange rate depreciation and additional debt accumulation, though he maintained that the country’s debt remains “high but sustainable.” He outlined government measures to reinforce debt sustainability, including borrowing only on highly concessional terms, reducing the fiscal deficit, and lowering the annual borrowing ceiling.
Revenue Performance
The Finance Minister highlighted significant improvements in domestic revenue mobilization. He reported that domestic revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached D28.8 billion, surpassing the D22.0 billion target.
“Compared to the same period in 2024, domestic revenue grew by 22 percent. Tax revenue exceeded its target by 15 percent as of September 2025, although non-tax revenue underperformed. Grant disbursements remain on track,” he said. Overall, revenue and grants are expected to meet annual projections.
Expenditure Pressures and Fiscal Balance
On expenditure, Hon. Keita noted persistent pressures stemming from unsettled 2024 commitments amounting to D690 million, unbudgeted transfers tied to earmarked revenues of D1.6 billion, and contingent liabilities from State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
Total expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 stood at D36.3 billion, representing an execution rate of 103 percent of the target. Despite these pressures, the Minister said spending is expected to fall within the approved budget by year-end due to reprioritisation efforts.
The overall deficit, including grants, amounted to D7.0 billion during the same period, driven by expenditure overruns and underperforming non-tax revenues. However, the deficit is projected to narrow as expected budget-support disbursements materialise.
Economic Outlook
Hon. Keita reported that The Gambia’s economic recovery continues to strengthen, with real GDP projected to grow by 5.9 percent in 2025, up from an estimated 5.6 percent in 2024.
The growth outlook, he said, is supported by slower inflation, a stable exchange rate, strong construction activity, improved agricultural performance, rising tourist arrivals, and robust diaspora remittances.
He highlighted a strong agricultural season, boosted by above-average rainfall and support from government and development partners.
The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 5.1 percent in 2025, with livestock, fishing, and aquaculture showing resilience. Growth in forestry and logging, however, remains modest due to restrictions on timber exports.
The industrial sector is expected to expand by 6.0 percent in 2025, up from 5.3 percent in 2024, driven by government infrastructure investments and remittance-fuelled construction demand.
On electricity, Hon. Keita said supply has improved due to increased domestic generation, the operationalization of the 225 kV transmission line, and diversified import sources. Mining and manufacturing activities are projected to maintain steady growth, supported by construction and rising local demand.
The services sector is forecast to grow by 6.0 percent in 2025, buoyed by tourism initiatives, increased consumer spending, stable prices, and higher remittances.
Transport is benefiting from ongoing infrastructure upgrades, while competition among mobile network operators is driving growth in information and communication services. The financial and insurance sectors remain strong due to improved bank capitalization and expanding fintech services.
Inflation and Exchange Rate Stability
Hon. Keita said inflation moderated significantly in the first half of 2025, thanks to declining global commodity prices and the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy stance. Although a temporary uptick occurred in July and August, inflation fell again in September and is expected to continue trending downward.
He also noted that exchange rate stability has been restored, supported by the forex policy introduced in 2023, strong tourist receipts, and steady remittance inflows.
The minister concluded that the government remains committed to safeguarding macroeconomic stability while fostering inclusive growth across all sectors.
