Gambiaj.com – (BANJUL, The Gambia) – Senegal’s push for financial sovereignty under President Ousmane Sonko is running up against a harsh fiscal reality: without the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval, the country’s recovery plan remains suspended, even as its finances deteriorate at an unprecedented pace. With the annual meetings of the Bretton Woods institutions scheduled for October 13 to 18 in Washington, Senegal’s economic future may be decided far from Dakar.
Despite the government’s sovereignist rhetoric and attempts at diversifying financial partnerships, Senegal remains trapped in what one banker calls an “implacable equation. Turks or Chinese, everyone looks at the same indicators and awaits the green light from the IMF,” a business banker told Le Monde. “As long as a deal is not acted on, Dakar will actually have no room for maneuver.”
At the heart of the stalemate is a suspended $1.8 billion IMF loan blocked over “odious debt” inherited from the previous regime.
With debt levels reaching 119% of GDP at the end of 2024, the country’s fiscal position has become precarious. The awaited publication of an audit by Forvis Mazars—tasked with establishing the real extent of Senegal’s liabilities—has further delayed any decision from the IMF.
The economic consequences are already stark. According to the Ministry of Finance, Senegal’s economy contracted by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025. Authorities admit the country is “suffocated by the debt crisis” and are scrambling to “find money, and quickly.”
Rising Revenues, Soaring Costs
Senegal is currently facing unprecedented financial difficulties. The government has tightened its revenue collection efforts to confront mounting obligations.
According to the Directorate of Forecasting and Economic Studies (DPEE), the state collected an estimated 2,575.2 billion CFA francs in the first seven months of 2025—a 9.9% increase compared to the same period last year.
This included 2,434.4 billion CFA francs in tax revenue (up 182.8 billion) and 140.8 billion CFA francs in non-tax revenues.
Yet expenditure pressures are outpacing gains. Public spending (excluding investment funded by external resources) rose by 4.6% to 2,986.6 billion CFA francs at the end of July 2025, compared to 2,855.6 billion CFA francs a year earlier.
The DPEE attributes this mainly to a 21% surge in interest charges on the debt—now at 564.1 billion CFA francs—alongside an 18% jump in transfers and subsidies to 1,117.8 billion CFA francs and a 2.9% rise in the payroll to 837.6 billion CFA francs.
Finance Minister Mamadou Moustapha Ba sounded the alarm at the National Assembly on Thursday, revealing that as of September 12, debt service payments—capital plus interest—already represented 83% of the resources collected.
“In such a situation, whatever the relevance of the policy implemented by the State, it will be annihilated by the snowball effect,” he warned. He added that reforms to the general tax code are underway to improve revenue mobilization.
Diplomacy Without Breakthroughs
Against this backdrop, Sonko has intensified international outreach. Between June and September, he visited Beijing, Ankara, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi to “reassure foreign groups and development banks,” according to Ibrahima Niang, a specialist in Sino-Senegalese relations at Cheikh Anta Diop University.
But the results have been underwhelming. No major new investment packages emerged from meetings with Chinese and Emirati leaders, and the much-publicized goal of reaching $1 billion in trade with Turkey merely revives a promise made by former president Macky Sall four years earlier.
Moreover, Sonko’s decision to audit existing contracts has strained ties with traditional partners, leading to the suspension of projects such as the Mbour-Fatick-Kaolack motorway by China Road and Bridge Corporation.
A Diaspora Lifeline into the Paradox of Sovereignty
Faced with limited external support, the government has turned to its diaspora. In Monza on September 13, Sonko launched “Patriotic and Citizens,” an initiative aimed at raising 1,800 billion CFA francs (about €2.7 billion) over three years—nearly 30% of the funding needed for Senegal’s recovery plan.
Yet even this approach carries controversy. A new surcharge on remittance transfers, central to the plan, has been denounced by the National Union of Consumers as a form of “tax injustice.”
This paradox captures Senegal’s current predicament. The more the government seeks to assert financial independence, the more it finds itself constrained by global institutions and debt obligations. The recovery plan adopted on July 30 to “straighten public finances” and “correct structural imbalances” remains suspended from Washington’s decision.
For Senegal under Ousmane Sonko, the path to economic autonomy still runs—ironically—through the approval of the very institutions it hopes to transcend.
