Gambiaj.com – (BANJUL, The Gambia) – As the Commonwealth prepares for its upcoming Secretary-General election, set to take place during the heads of state or ministerial representatives meeting in Samoa starting October 21, 2024, the race is heating up with candidates from Lesotho, Ghana, and The Gambia vying for the prestigious role.

Joshua Phoho Setipa, the candidate from Lesotho appears to be the favorite on the pole position, having already secured the endorsement of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which could guarantee at least 10 votes out of the 56 Commonwealth members. This early support and the potential backing of some Caribbean countries places Lesotho in a strong position, giving its candidate a 40% chance of success according to some predictions.

Ghana’s candidate, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwe, who currently serves as Foreign Minister, is also a strong contender. Her candidacy benefits from the gender factor, a significant consideration in modern international politics, and her extensive background in trade. Additionally, Ghana’s government seems prepared to invest heavily in promoting their candidate, contrasting sharply with what some see as the laid-back approach of The Gambia’s regime. However, the presence of two candidates from West Africa may dilute support for both, potentially hindering their chances.

Meanwhile, The Gambia’s candidate, Foreign Minister Dr. Mamadou Tangara, is seen as the underdog. His association with the former Jammeh regime remains a point of contention and could prove to be a disadvantage on the international stage. Critics argue that Dr. Tangara’s tenure as Foreign Minister has not significantly elevated Gambia’s diplomatic standing, and his reluctance to engage with the media, especially following controversies like the recent Cuba incident, has raised further doubts about his candidacy.

In this international political chess game, where each of the 56 Commonwealth members holds a single vote, the odds seem to favor Lesotho and Ghana over The Gambia. With Lesotho predicted to have a 40% chance of winning, Ghana following with a 35% chance, and The Gambia trailing at 25%, the outcome remains uncertain. However, anything is possible in such a high-stakes election.

Supporters of Dr. Tangara are now calling for him to step up and defend his record, particularly in addressing concerns about nepotism within the Gambian Foreign Ministry and his handling of recent diplomatic challenges. They argue that if Dr. Tangara is serious about his candidacy, he must be more proactive in engaging with the media and defending his accomplishments.

As the election date approaches, all eyes will be on Samoa, where the future leadership of the Commonwealth will be decided. Whether Dr. Tangara can overcome the odds and emerge as a surprise victor remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: this is a race that will be closely watched by all Commonwealth members.