Gambiaj.com. -(BISSAU-Guinea-Bissau) – Guinea-Bissau is heading towards a contentious constitutional referendum on August 30, with supporters of the proposed new constitution arguing that it will clarify the distribution of powers and strengthen institutional stability, while opponents warn that it could concentrate excessive power in the presidency and weaken Parliament, political parties, and the government.
The referendum has become a major political dividing line ahead of the vote, with the opposition PAIGC, the API-CG coalition, and COLIDE-GB all rejecting the process in its current form and calling for a boycott. They argue that the constitutional review was conducted without sufficient political inclusion and that political parties have been excluded from formally campaigning in the referendum.
The authorities overseeing the transition reject those accusations. Nelson Moreira, second vice-president of the National Transitional Council (CNT), told RFI that the proposed Constitution does not transform the President into the head of government and said the reform is intended to bring greater clarity and stability to the country’s political system.
What the new Constitution would change
One of the most significant changes concerns the relationship between the President and the government.
Under the proposed system, the President of the Republic would preside over the Council of Ministers, although Moreira stressed that this would not be an unrestricted power and would only occur under circumstances provided for by the Constitution.
The Prime Minister would continue to be appointed by the President, but the process would be linked to election results and the existence of a stable parliamentary majority. According to Moreira, the President could invite the winning party to propose a prime minister only when that party has the necessary parliamentary support.
The authorities therefore argue that the reform does not establish a presidential system or make the President head of government. Instead, they say it seeks to clarify the existing semi-presidential model and eliminate ambiguities that have contributed to repeated institutional disputes.
The proposed Constitution also provides for changes to the functioning of Parliament. One of the most controversial is the reduction of the number of deputies in the National People’s Assembly from 102 to 65.
The proponents of the reform present the changes as part of a broader effort to clarify institutional responsibilities, reduce areas of constitutional ambiguity, and create mechanisms for resolving disputes between the President, Government, and Parliament.
The text has reportedly been under discussion since 2014, with its supporters arguing that it reinforces the separation of powers, maintains the dual structure of the semi-presidential system, and places limits on presidential discretion.
Opponents see a stronger presidency
For the PAIGC, however, the proposed changes represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power.
Muniro Conté, spokesperson for the party, described the proposed Constitution as a potential source of political instability. He argued that it weakens the Prime Minister and Government, subordinates Parliament and political parties, and risks disregarding the popular mandate expressed through elections.
Conté’s central concern is the expanded role of the President. He argued that Guinea-Bissau has already experienced serious institutional crises under the existing Constitution, which places limits on presidential powers.
He pointed to the 13 prime ministers appointed during the combined presidencies of José Mário Vaz and Umaro Sissoco Embaló, arguing that only four appointments were made in accordance with the constitutional framework as interpreted by the PAIGC.
The party therefore fears that giving the presidency additional powers could make future political crises more difficult to contain.
Conté warned that the country could end up with prime ministers who are politically dependent on the President rather than governments genuinely reflecting parliamentary election results.
“There will be no cohabitation whatsoever,” he argued, saying the proposed arrangement could produce “subservient prime ministers” under a dominant presidency.
The PAIGC also rejects the reduction of Parliament from 102 to 65 deputies. Conté described the reduction as disproportionate and questioned its potential impact on regional and political representation.
Parties excluded from referendum campaign
The constitutional dispute has been compounded by the rules governing the referendum itself.
The Referendum Act excludes political parties from participating as formal stakeholders in the campaign. Instead, citizen groups and other organisations have been incorporated into the process.
The PAIGC argues that this exclusion undermines the legitimacy of the referendum because political parties are central institutions for expressing popular will in a democratic system.
Conté also questioned the legitimacy of the Referendum Law, arguing that it was adopted by the transitional authorities following the 2025 political rupture. He cited what he described as irregularities involving different versions of the law and changes to the conditions governing validation of the referendum.
The PAIGC has consequently rejected both a “Yes” and “No” campaign, instead calling on its supporters to boycott the vote.
API-CG demands a new process.
The Aliança Patriótica Inclusiva–Cabaz Garandi (API-CG) has taken a similar position, rejecting the August 30 referendum and calling on Guineans to boycott it.
The coalition argues that the proposed Constitution was produced and promulgated by authorities without a sufficiently broad democratic mandate and that the referendum is being used to provide democratic legitimacy to a constitutional text that was not developed through an inclusive national process.
API-CG says any new constitutional order should be based on popular sovereignty, constitutional continuity, political pluralism, universal suffrage, fundamental rights and freedoms, democratic opposition, separation of powers, and judicial independence.
It also calls for a constitutional process involving the country’s principal political and social forces rather than one driven solely by transitional authorities.
The coalition has further raised questions about two versions of the Referendum Law published under the same number, arguing that the differences between them create uncertainty about the rules governing approval of the new Constitution.
According to API-CG, an earlier version required the participation of more than half of registered voters for the referendum to be valid, while a subsequent version removed that requirement and allowed approval by a majority of votes cast by those who participate.
The coalition argues that this change could weaken the democratic legitimacy of the outcome.
COLIDE-GB calls for national dialogue.
COLIDE-GB has also rejected the referendum in its current form and called for its suspension.
The party argues that Guinea-Bissau’s constitutional crisis cannot be resolved simply by adopting a new legal framework. It says the country first needs an Inclusive National Dialogue capable of addressing the political disputes and institutional weaknesses that have repeatedly destabilized the country.
The party links the current crisis to the dissolution of Parliament and subsequent political developments, arguing that competition for political power and the inability of political actors to resolve disputes through institutions, justice, and dialogue have contributed to instability.
COLIDE-GB proposes that a national dialogue establish consensus around the country’s political and constitutional future, including the framework for future elections and referendums.
It argues that any constitutional reform must be transparent, participatory, and politically consensual if it is to contribute to lasting peace and stability.
Transitional authorities reject concentration-of-power claims.
The CNT has strongly rejected the opposition’s interpretation of the proposed Constitution.
Moreira said the reform does not give the President unlimited authority and insisted that the Prime Minister would remain an essential part of the executive structure.
He also argued that the President’s role in the Council of Ministers should not be interpreted as making the presidency equivalent to the head of government.
“The President of the Republic passes to preside over the Council of Ministers,” Moreira said, stressing that this would occur only under conditions established by the constitution.
He further argued that a party’s victory in legislative elections would not automatically give it the right to form a government unless it could demonstrate a stable majority in Parliament.
The CNT also disputes claims that political and social forces were excluded from the constitutional process. Moreira said the PAIGC, PRS, and MADEM were represented in the CNT, alongside youth, traditional authorities, and civil society.
A referendum overshadowed by questions of legitimacy
The dispute has therefore moved beyond the content of the proposed Constitution itself and into a broader argument over who has the authority to redesign Guinea-Bissau’s political system.
For the authorities, the new Constitution is intended to address longstanding institutional ambiguities, clarify the relationship between the President and Government and provide greater stability.
For its opponents, the central issue is not simply constitutional design but democratic legitimacy. They argue that a Constitution governing all Guineans should be negotiated and approved through a process involving legitimate political institutions and broad participation by political and social forces.
The PAIGC, API-CG, and COLIDE-GB have consequently converged on a boycott strategy, although their arguments differ in emphasis. The PAIGC focuses heavily on the danger of presidential overreach and the weakening of Parliament and political parties; API-CG questions the legitimacy and transparency of the referendum process, while COLIDE-GB prioritizes an inclusive national dialogue before any referendum or major constitutional settlement.
The authorities, meanwhile, maintain that the referendum offers a route out of years of institutional instability and insist that the proposed Constitution preserves the semi-presidential system rather than replacing it with presidential rule.
The August 30 vote is therefore shaping up not merely as a referendum on a constitutional text but as a contest over the political architecture and democratic legitimacy of Guinea-Bissau’s next political order.
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