Gambiaj.com – (BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau) – Guinea-Bissau is heading toward a potentially far-reaching constitutional referendum on August 30, with political analyst and researcher Ibrahima Niang warning that the process risks a legitimacy problem because of its rushed preparation and limited public debate.
The referendum, organized by the military authorities who have governed the country since the November 2025 coup, proposes a new constitutional framework that would significantly reshape the balance of power between the executive and legislature.
Speaking to RFI, Niang said the central question is not only whether voters will approve the proposed Constitution but whether the process has been sufficiently inclusive and transparent to give the resulting political order broad legitimacy.
A regime change aimed at ending instability
The proposed constitutional changes are being presented by the transitional authorities as a way of addressing Guinea-Bissau’s long-running political and institutional instability.
Niang said the military leadership’s stated objective is to establish a political system that can prevent repeated constitutional crises and political deadlock.
But he questioned whether concentrating greater authority in the executive will necessarily deliver the stability the authorities are seeking.
According to Niang, Guinea-Bissau’s existing system gives the National People’s Assembly an important role as a counterweight to the executive. The proposed Constitution, he argued, would move the country toward what he described as “hyper-presidentialism,” with a greater concentration of powers in the executive.
The reform would also reduce the number of parliamentarians from 102 to around 61 or 62.
Niang warned that the reduction could have significant consequences for smaller political parties, which have historically been able to secure representation in the National Assembly under the existing electoral arrangement.
Under the proposed system, he said, smaller parties could struggle to maintain parliamentary representation, potentially reducing political pluralism.
The referendum’s preparation under scrutiny
Niang also questioned why the referendum has been organised so quickly.
He noted that when the military took power, its transition plan initially focused on organizing presidential and legislative elections while involving political parties and civil society in the transition process.
According to him, a referendum was not initially part of that roadmap. It was only in January 2026 that the National Transitional Committee published a draft law proposing constitutional changes.
He therefore questioned the urgency of holding the vote now rather than allowing broader consultations before submitting such a fundamental restructuring of the state to voters.
The analyst also pointed to practical shortcomings, including the failure to translate the constitutional documents into the country’s different languages, making it more difficult for sections of the population to fully understand the proposed changes.
He said shortcomings in the deployment of electoral materials and the overall organization of the process could affect public confidence in the referendum.
Can a new Constitution preserve stability?
The central argument in favor of the reform is that Guinea-Bissau needs stronger institutions capable of breaking the cycle of political crises that has repeatedly paralyzed the country.
Under the proposed Constitution, the president would gain broad powers to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, create or abolish ministries, preside over the Council of Ministers, dissolve Parliament in the event of a serious political crisis, and dismiss the government under certain circumstances.
The reform would also reduce the size of Parliament from 102 to 65 seats and cut the number of electoral districts from 29 to 12. A new provision would require presidential candidates to have lived permanently in Guinea-Bissau for the five years preceding an election.
Supporters argue that the changes would help reshape and strengthen the country’s political institutions and address recurring instability.
Critics, however, warn that the proposed system would concentrate too much power in the presidency and weaken parliamentary checks and balances.
But Niang cautioned that constitutional engineering alone may not resolve the country’s underlying vulnerabilities.
He argued that a more durable settlement would require wider political and social consultations, allowing the different actors in the country to debate the proposed constitutional order and contribute to its design.
The challenge, therefore, is to create institutions that are strong enough to preserve stability without weakening the checks and balances needed to prevent excessive concentration of power.
For the military authorities, the referendum represents an opportunity to establish a new political framework that they believe can bring greater institutional stability.
For critics, however, the same concentration of authority could create a different source of instability if political forces excluded from the process reject the new constitutional order.
Voter turnout could become the decisive test
Beyond the campaign and the content of the proposed Constitution, Niang identified another factor that could ultimately determine the credibility of the process: voter participation.
He argued that a referendum derives its democratic legitimacy from citizens actively expressing their will on the proposed constitutional text.
A high turnout, particularly if accompanied by a clear result, could provide the transitional authorities with stronger political grounds to argue that the population has endorsed the new institutional framework.
A weak turnout, however, could leave the authorities facing questions about whether the new Constitution genuinely reflects the will of the population.
Niang also stressed that the final assessment would have to take into account not only participation but the distribution of votes when the ballots are counted.
This makes August 30 more than a simple vote on a constitutional document. The turnout and the result could become an important measure of public acceptance of the transition itself and of the political system the military authorities are seeking to establish.
If approved with broad participation, the reform could give the authorities a stronger mandate to argue that Guinea-Bissau has entered a new constitutional phase.
If participation is low or the result is contested, however, the referendum could instead deepen the legitimacy questions surrounding the transition.
For a country with a long history of political upheaval, the real test may therefore begin after the ballots are counted: whether the proposed constitutional changes can translate the promise of stability into institutions that command sufficient public and political acceptance to endure.
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